The Math of the Network
Live on-chain and market signals · the Santostasi power-law fit · halving-cycle dashboard. Keyless public data, refreshed every five minutes. Research framework — not investment advice.
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Tell the page what you hold. Every dashboard below reframes around your stack. Stored in this browser only — never sent to a server.
These are model trajectory values, not forecasts. The power law is a backward-looking observation; nothing forces Bitcoin to keep following it. Treat the bands as a sizing discipline, not a target.
Network Pulse
Real-time read of Bitcoin's two faces — the market and the chain. Market via CoinGecko / Alternative.me / blockchain.info, on-chain via mempool.space. 5-minute cache. No keys, no permission.
Bitcoin's Orbit
Every halving starts a new loop. Each orbit's radius is log(price), its height a cycle, its colour the Mayer Multiple — red when the market runs hot, green when it's deeply undervalued. Drag to rotate, scroll to zoom, click an event to fly the camera there.
Trend, Deviation, Discipline
Giovanni Santostasi (PhD physics, retired LSU) observed that Bitcoin's full log–log price chart fits a straight line: log10(price) ≈ n · log10(days since genesis) + b. Across 16+ years and four halving cycles, the residuals around that line have stayed within a tight band. This isn't a forecast — it's a backward-looking observation that has refused to break. Use the σ-bands below as a sizing discipline, not a prediction engine.
Cycle Dashboard
Bitcoin's supply schedule cuts in half every ~210,000 blocks (≈ four years). Each halving has historically anchored a fresh cycle of accumulation, rally, peak, and bear. The dashboard below tracks where we are in the current cycle and overlays it on the previous three.
Who Holds the Bitcoin
A curated snapshot of the largest publicly-known holders: spot ETFs, listed companies, governments, and historic dormant addresses. Every figure is sourced and dated. Together these tracked entities hold a meaningful chunk of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.
| Holder | Category | BTC | USD value | % of 21M | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading holdings… | ||||||
data/bitcoin/holdings.json.
Dollar-Cost Average Backtest
What would weekly buys have produced? Pick a budget and a start date. Math runs in your browser against the full price history. No advice; time-travel only.
| Strategy | Invested | BTC stack | Cash held | Current value | Return | Worst point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Educational backtest. Real DCA includes exchange fees, withdrawal fees, tax events on sales, slippage, and the discipline cost of actually executing a rule when the screen is red — none of that is modeled here. Past behavior does not guarantee future behavior.
Exit Strategy / Sell Ladder
Almost every Bitcoin tool helps you decide when to buy. This one helps you think about when to sell. Define a sell ladder — at each σ-band or price target, take a fixed share off the table — then backtest it across the full price history. Each rule fires at most once.
Backtest only — no taxes (capital gains in most jurisdictions), no exchange fees, no slippage, no behavioral cost of selling into euphoria. Each rule fires once across the whole window; in practice, halving-cycle resets and trailing rules can model "sell into each cycle peak" more realistically. Future cycles need not resemble past ones.
DCA Planner
A simple rules engine that combines the Santostasi power-law zone with the current halving-cycle context. It turns valuation posture into a suggested DCA setting, while keeping sell or trim decisions outside the model unless they were defined before price moved.
Questions about this dashboard
Plain-English answers to what this page actually shows and how the math works. None of it is investment advice — just a research framework, honestly framed.
What is the Bitcoin power law?
Giovanni Santostasi (PhD physics, retired LSU) observed that Bitcoin's full log–log price chart fits a remarkably straight line: log10(price) ≈ n · log10(days since genesis) + b. Across 16+ years and four halving cycles the residuals around that line have stayed within a tight band. Our live fit on the full daily history gives n ≈ 5.64 and a residual standard deviation σ ≈ 0.30 in log-space. It's a backward-looking observation, not a forecast — Bitcoin has the right to break this trend at any time.
Is the power law a price prediction?
No. The power law is a post hoc observation that has held empirically — not a causal model. The site uses it as a sizing discipline: σ-bands group price into zones (capitulation, accumulate, fair, caution, euphoria) so position decisions can be tied to deviation from the historical trajectory rather than to gut feel. If the relationship breaks, the bands break with it. The page surfaces the model's posture, not a target.
What does "σ-distance from trend" mean?
σ-distance is how many standard deviations price is away from the fitted power-law trend, measured in log-space. 0σ means exactly on trend. +1σ means price is one residual-stdev above trend (≈ 2× the trend price). −1σ means roughly half. +2σ is around 4× the trend; −2σ is ¼. Bitcoin has rarely closed above +2σ and even more rarely below −2σ — those zones are historically the cycle extremes.
When does Bitcoin's next halving happen?
Bitcoin's block subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks — roughly every four years. The fourth halving was on 2024-04-19 (block 840,000). The fifth halving is estimated around 2028-04-19; exact timing depends on the difficulty adjustment and average block time. The Cycle Dashboard above tracks the days-since-last and days-to-next live, plus the current cycle's price multiple from its halving-day anchor.
Should I dollar-cost average into Bitcoin?
The honest backtest answer: lump-sum has historically demolished both blind weekly DCA and σ-band Smart DCA in every window we tested. Run the DCA Time Machine yourself — at every start date from 2017 forward, lump-sum returns 5–10× DCA. Smart DCA (skip when σ > +1, double when σ < −1) barely beats blind DCA. The reason: Bitcoin's right-skewed history means cash held back from a long-running uptrend is the most expensive cash you'll ever hold. None of this is advice — your tax situation, risk tolerance, and time-horizon matter more than the model.
How much Bitcoin is held by institutions?
The Custody Map section tracks ~25 of the largest publicly-known holders across four categories: spot ETFs (BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC, Grayscale, ARK 21Shares, Bitwise, etc.), public companies (Strategy/MicroStrategy, MARA, Riot, CleanSpark, Tesla, Block, Metaplanet), nation-states (US/UK/PRC government seizures, Bhutan state mining, El Salvador treasury, Ukraine), and private dormant addresses (Satoshi's ~1.1M, MtGox creditors). Together these tracked entities hold roughly 17.4% of the 21M total supply. Figures are approximate and dated — see source links per row.
What is sell-ladder backtesting?
The Exit Strategy section lets you define a sell ladder — a set of rules like "sell 10% when σ ≥ +1, sell 25% when σ ≥ +2, sell 50% when σ ≥ +3" — then runs that ladder forward through the full price history. Each rule fires at most once. The result is honest: ladder-vs-HODL deltas are usually negative for any window covering the full power-law uptrend. Selling discipline costs you when an asset trends to the upside; the page surfaces this without sugar-coating.
Does this site give financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is a research framework: a model fit, historical comparisons, and backtests of explicit rules. Real allocation decisions should consider position size relative to total wealth, jurisdiction-specific tax treatment of crypto, exchange/custody risk, and time horizon — none of which are modeled here. Past behavior is not a guarantee of future behavior, and the power law is a backward-looking observation that could break at any cycle. Use it as a sizing discipline, not a target.