◆ The Comparison

Bitcoin vs Gold vs S&P 500

The honest cross-asset chart: Bitcoin against the two assets that get compared to it most. Total return, CAGR, max drawdown — across four start dates from 2014 to the most recent halving. The y-axis is logarithmic because that's the only way the differences fit on the same chart.

◆ Pick a start date

Performance from 2014-01-01

Each row indexes the asset to 100 at the chosen start date. Total return, compound annual growth rate, and worst peak-to-trough drawdown computed on quarter-end closes.

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◆ What this comparison shows

The honest framing

This chart is the most-used pro-Bitcoin argument in the world. It's also the most-misused one. Here's the framing that does it justice:

Bitcoin has produced order-of-magnitude higher returns than gold or equities since 2014. From 2014, Bitcoin's CAGR is roughly 5× gold's and 5× the S&P's. From 2017, the gap is similar. From the 2020 halving, Bitcoin still outperforms but by a smaller multiple. From the 2024 halving, gold has actually beaten Bitcoin so far — start-date matters.
Bitcoin has done it with much higher volatility. Max drawdowns of 70-85% in every cycle. Gold drew down 20-25% at worst over the same period. The S&P had 24% drawdowns in 2018 and 2020. The CAGRs above are realized, not theoretical — but they were earned by holders who could stomach the path.
The right comparison isn't "which to pick" — it's "which mix to hold." A small Bitcoin allocation in a portfolio that's mostly equities and cash adds disproportionate upside without the full position-level drawdown exposure. The math is portfolio-construction, not horse race.

What the chart doesn't show: the holders who bought the 2017 peak and sold at the 2018 low; the holders who panic-sold in March 2020; the funds that were forced to liquidate during the 2022 drawdown. The CAGR is calculated for someone who held through the whole window. That person is rare. The realized return for the median actual investor is meaningfully lower.

◆ Methodology & Sources

Where the numbers come from

All three series are reduced to quarter-end closing values so the chart compares apples to apples. Bitcoin's daily series is sampled at quarter-end (using the most recent trading day in each quarter). Gold and S&P 500 use widely-published quarter-end closes. Returns and CAGRs are simple price returns; no dividends reinvested for the S&P (which would add ~2%/year to the CAGR).

Source data

Bitcoin (USD) — full daily history, blockchain.info charts API, sampled to quarter-end
Gold (XAU/USD) — quarter-end London PM fix, public market data, refreshed quarterly in services/macro.py
S&P 500 (^SPX) — quarter-end closing index level, public market data, refreshed quarterly

For Bitcoin's full math (power law fit, σ-bands, cycle phase model), see Methodology. For the live signals dashboard, see Signals. For an honest take on the bear case, see Critiques.